By Lily Boyce,Lazaro Gamio,Eli Murray and Alicia Parlapiano
The presidential race will most likely come down to voters in eight states that remain competitive, according to the most recent ratings by the Cook Political Report.
There are many combinations of states that could put either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump over the threshold of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
If both candidates win all of the states in their solid, likely and lean categories, the race would come down to the seven tossup states in yellow. Ms. Harris would need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win. Mr. Trump would need 51.
Six of the seven states rated as tossups were won narrowly by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. Of course, some of the states currently rated as leaning or likely Democratic or Republican could also come into play.
Tossup states
State | Elec. votes | 2020 margin | 2024 polling |
---|---|---|---|
Pennsylvania | 19 | D +1.2 | Harris <1› |
The most important battleground state, Pennsylvania has the highest number of electoral votes. For either candidate, a path to victory without the state would be complicated. | |||
Georgia | 16 | D +0.2 | Trump +1› |
After years of Republican dominance, the state’s rapidly growing and diversifying population helped lead to the narrowest of wins for President Biden in 2020 and to two Senate seats for Democrats in early 2021. | |||
North Carolina | 16 | R +1.3 | Trump <1› |
Republicans have won the state in every presidential election since 2012. Some Republicans fear a scandal involving their party’s nominee for governor, Mark Robinson, could affect Mr. Trump’s chances. | |||
Michigan | 15 | D +2.8 | Harris <1› |
Voters chose Mr. Trump in 2016, but Democrats have done well in statewide elections here since, including Mr. Biden's 2.8 percentage point win in 2020. | |||
Arizona | 11 | D +0.3 | Trump +2› |
Mr. Trump has shown strength in the Sun Belt, in part because of his support among Hispanic voters. Democrats are hoping that a ballot measure codifying the right to abortion in the state will help drive turnout. | |||
Wisconsin | 10 | D +0.6 | Harris <1› |
The state is a key component in Ms. Harris’s clearest path to victory — wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It has the potential to be the winning candidate’s “tipping-point” state (like it was in 2020), putting him or her over the top in the Electoral College. | |||
Nevada | 6 | D +2.4 | Harris <1› |
The most diverse battleground state, Nevada has more registered nonpartisan voters than Democrats or Republicans, and Democrats have been winning presidential elections here by smaller and smaller margins. The relatively small number of electoral votes make it less likely to be decisive. |
Lean Democratic
State | E.V. | 2020 |
---|---|---|
Nebraska 2nd District Neb. 2 | 1 | D +6.5 |
Lean Republican
No states with this rating
Likely Democratic
State | E.V. | 2020 |
---|---|---|
Virginia Va. | 13 | D +10.1 |
Minnesota Minn. | 10 | D +7.1 |
New Mexico N.M. | 5 | D +10.8 |
New Hampshire N.H. | 4 | D +7.4 |
Maine Maine | 2 | D +9.1 |
Likely Republican
State | E.V. | 2020 |
---|---|---|
Texas Texas | 40 | R +5.6 |
Florida Fla. | 30 | R +3.4 |
Maine 2nd District Me. 2 | 1 | R +7.9 |
Correction:
Aug. 14, 2024
An earlier version of a table in this article mislabeled the margin of victory for the 2020 presidential election in New Hampshire. Joe Biden won the state by 7.4 percentage points, not 0.4 percentage points.